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1 person likes this. Showing 27 of 28 comments
Limited upside ever sold at 35cts past years,,beg of 2013 sold at 20-21cts..avoid its losses come in last 2 years..limited upside 15cts the most..if u really want to buy this S chip..suggest better put in $$$ in Vard Holdings,,the big Italian shareholders bought at $1.21..$1 billion contracts secured in 2013..expect some dividends mid year reporting soon
2013-10-23 19:18
Yes ignore the sound but did u cash out when it was>14cts? Otherwise got caugfht liao..I just sound note of caution as I was lucky to escape for this JES and hence don't want fellow forummers to get caught in JES..wish u luck
Buy Sell JES SGD 10,000 0.127 0.128 45,000 0.130 -0.002 -1.520 4,021,000 0.132 0.125
2013-11-07 16:03
Pre-announcement stable level share price (ex possibility of news leakage): c.11.8 cents
Implied market cap of JES = S$137.59m (1166m shs outstanding)
current share price: 16.5cents
implied value of the option granted to JES to invest in MineRiver = (0.165-0.118)*(1166m) = S$54.80m
we can view the optionality grant to JES as a real option. let's adopt a 3-stage binomial option pricing model.
based on the model below, for us to get an expected value of the option of S$50.48m, we have to go with the assumptions below.
Thus if you buy, you are betting that the option is worth more (ie your assumptions are more bullish than the ones below). If you sell, you are betting the option is worth less (ie your assumptions are more bearish than the ones below).
hope that helps.
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Acacia Trading is a Preeminent Training Institution that aims to provide financial freedom to its students through its unique and proprietary training methodology. We utilize events-driven fundamental analysis that teaches our students how to capitalize on both long and short views on opportunities to maximize gains.
Disclaimer: We do not hold shares in the stocks that are listed in our ideas unless specifically stated. The recommendations stated above are general recommendations and may not be suitable for your portfolio. Please contact your financial adviser prior to taking action on the ideas above. All ideas are provided for discussion purposes only. We will not accept any liability for losses that are sustained as a result of you following our ideas. The ideas are provided on a good faith basis, please conduct your own due diligence on the ideas prior to taking action. We iterate that we are a training academy and are only bound to our students who we have an express contract with. That said, please free feel to comment and discuss on the ideas above. Cheers, Acacia Trading.
=== Binomial Model Assumptions ===
1. stage one: tranche one investment
acacia est of probability of success: 60%
max loss to JES = S$7m
2. stage two: tranche two investment
acacia est of probability of success: 40%
max loss to JES = S$60m
3. stage one: tranche one investment
acacia est of probability of success: 20%
max loss to JES = S$60m
value of minerals at mine: S$60bn
acacia est of margin: 10%
% stake owned by JES: 30%
possible NPV of CF to JES = S$60bn * 10% * 30% = $1.8bn
2014-01-28 08:32
separately announced losses for current quarter! Interesting how investor will react one good and bad announcement
2014-03-01 23:06
Limited upside ever sold at 35cts past years,,beg of 2013 sold at 20-21cts..avoid its losses come in last 2 years..limited upside 15cts the most..I made this comment in Oct 23,,yet a few pple here said iognore all this noise...
2014-04-07 19:37
I have warned in Oct-Nov 2013 and also in april 2014 Jes artifically pushed up...but was told to shut up the noise..still my advice to avoid Jes...management trying all sorts of non concrete and ridiculoe ways to pump up its shares to sell to retail..go for innovalues will be another Valuetronics..uptrend intact
2014-07-31 14:27
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Ride The Bull Short The Bear
CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
0665hock
very soon...this counter will fly
2013-10-21 22:49