NAV per share of OUE C-REIT: $1.02 (unaudited Dec 2013)
Issue Price: $0.80 (discount of 21.8%)
Loss to sponsor, OUE on per share basis: -$0.10

Essentially, OUE trying to sell apart of their assets to the market cheaply. Thus this is the key reason why OUE drops.

So why did OUE C-REIT drop?
Reason why investors would buy REIT? For stable yields. Lets look at the yield quality of OUE C-REIT:
1. REIT manager: OUE. Can OUE get more properties for the REIT at discounted prices or get more yield accretive properties to justify the 0.3% base management fee + 25% performance fee?
2. Can OUE C-REIT sustain the 6.8% yield they claimed on the front page of the prospectus?
(see pg 42) without income support the yield drops to 5.56%
(see pg 85) net income S$32, but pay S$47m in distribution using unit-holder contributions? what you pay for, they just return it straight to you? [note: stable yield prob only 2-3%]
stabilizing manager? or price support manager? c.5% of the units can be utilized in stabilization.

looks like if you're participating the IPO, you are banking on the work of the stabilizing manager.


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Acacia Trading is a Preeminent Training Institution that aims to provide financial freedom to its students through its unique and proprietary training methodology. We utilize events-driven fundamental analysis that teaches our students how to capitalize on both long and short views on opportunities to maximize gains.

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Pre-announcement stable level share price (ex possibility of news leakage): c.11.8 cents
Implied market cap of JES = S$137.59m (1166m shs outstanding)

current share price: 16.5cents
implied value of the option granted to JES to invest in MineRiver = (0.165-0.118)*(1166m) = S$54.80m

we can view the optionality grant to JES as a real option. let's adopt a 3-stage binomial option pricing model.

based on the model below, for us to get an expected value of the option of S$50.48m, we have to go with the assumptions below.

Thus if you buy, you are betting that the option is worth more (ie your assumptions are more bullish than the ones below). If you sell, you are betting the option is worth less (ie your assumptions are more bearish than the ones below).

hope that helps.

for more analysis on different stock please visit:
our fanpage: https://www.facebook.com/AcaciaTradingSingapore
our blog: http://lansfordloo.wordpress.com/
and like our page. Thanks!

Acacia Trading is a Preeminent Training Institution that aims to provide financial freedom to its students through its unique and proprietary training methodology. We utilize events-driven fundamental analysis that teaches our students how to capitalize on both long and short views on opportunities to maximize gains.

Disclaimer: We do not hold shares in the stocks that are listed in our ideas unless specifically stated. The recommendations stated above are general recommendations and may not be suitable for your portfolio. Please contact your financial adviser prior to taking action on the ideas above. All ideas are provided for discussion purposes only. We will not accept any liability for losses that are sustained as a result of you following our ideas. The ideas are provided on a good faith basis, please conduct your own due diligence on the ideas prior to taking action. We iterate that we are a training academy and are only bound to our students who we have an express contract with. That said, please free feel to comment and discuss on the ideas above. Cheers, Acacia Trading.



=== Binomial Model Assumptions ===

1. stage one: tranche one investment
acacia est of probability of success: 60%
max loss to JES = S$7m

2. stage two: tranche two investment
acacia est of probability of success: 40%
max loss to JES = S$60m

3. stage one: tranche one investment
acacia est of probability of success: 20%
max loss to JES = S$60m

value of minerals at mine: S$60bn
acacia est of margin: 10%
% stake owned by JES: 30%
possible NPV of CF to JES = S$60bn * 10% * 30% = $1.8bn