SGX Market Updates

Policy Shifts & Market Dynamics Fuel Trading Activity

SGX
Publish date: Thu, 10 Oct 2024, 06:03 PM
  • Since late August, institutional investors net bought S$1.4 billion in Singapore stocks, marking a significant turnaround from the S$1.3 billion net outflow earlier in the year. The 10 stocks with the most net institutional inflow included the STI banks and Singtel, averaging 5.2% total returns, while the remaining six stocks averaged 14.9% total returns.
     
  • Over the past six weeks, major market expectations for 2024 were realised with policy rate cuts by the Fed and PBOC, more resilient ASEAN GDP and strong electronics demand tipping Singapore IP into a 1.7% YTD expansion. These have helped push the STI to a 17-year high, with the Index book valuation much less stretched than Oct 2007 levels. 
     
  • On 9 Oct, Singapore’s Structured Warrants market saw its highest trading turnover since Jan 2019, driven by significant moves in the Hang Seng Index-tracking markets, while the 20 most traded Singapore stocks with significant Greater China revenue have averaged 22% total returns since Sep 20, paralleling the FTSE China A50 & CSI 300. 
     

Institutional investors have been aggressive net buyers of Singapore stocks since end of August, with the inflows coinciding with various catalysts to re-price local equities. Going back to the most recent MSCI rebalance which took effect on Aug 30, institutional investors have since net bought S$1.43 billion in Singapore stocks, reversing the S$1.30 billion of net outflow in the 2024 year through to Aug 29. 

The 10 local stocks that led the S$1.43 billion of net institutional inflow from the open of Aug 30 to the close of Oct 9 are tabled below. The 10 stocks include the four largest Singapore stocks by market capitalisation, the trio of banks and Singtel, which averaged 5.2% total returns over the period, paralleling the STI’s 5.7% total return. The remaining six stocks averaged  14.9% total returns over the period. 

10 Stocks with Most Net Insti Inflow from 30 Aug to 9 OctCodeMkt Cap S$MTR % 
29 Aug - 9 Oct
NIF S$M 
30 Aug - 9 Oct
NIF 30 Aug - 9 Oct / Mkt Cap ADT S$M YTDTR % YTDNIF S$M YTDSector
DBSD05110,3548.3485.70.4%158.3233.774.2Financial Services
Seatrium Ltd5E26,92840.7179.62.6%61.07-13.6-22.1Industrials
SingtelZ7452,5135.3153.00.3%96.3332.2800.3Telecommunications
Sembcorp IndU969,83816.7110.31.1%17.776.764.6Utilities
OCBC BankO3967,7854.4103.20.2%78.8523.2256.7Financial Services
KeppelBN411,7407.492.60.8%25.00-3.1-10.7Industrials
SGXS6812,4327.887.00.7%20.9520.3240.0Financial Services
Mapletree PanAsia Com TrN2IU7,7348.182.21.1%23.24-1.5-68.2REITs
UOBU1153,3922.861.00.1%84.2518.8498.5Financial Services
Genting SingG1310,5038.756.40.5%26.56-8.8-138.4Consumer Cyclicals

Note YZJ Shipbldg, CapLand Ascendas REIT, Frasers Cpt Tr, Venture and ThaiBev booked the most net institutional outflow over the 6 weeks.
TR refers to total Return, ADT refers to Average Daily Trading Turnover; NIF refers to Net Institutional Inflow, NRF refers to Net Retail Flow 
All Data as of 9 Oct 2024. Source: SGX & Refinitiv. 

The past six weeks have brought to fruition many of the market expectations for 2024. The US Federal Reserve reduced the Fed Funds Rate by 50bps on Sep 18, the PBOC reduced its main policy rate by 20bps on Sep 24 while also announcing significant housing and capital market reforms, as key ASEAN GDP gauges either maintained rebound traction or accelerated. In Singapore, the month of Sep saw strong electronics demand in both the Aug IP and NODX reports, enough to tip the former into expansion territory for the first 8 months of 2024 at 1.7%, following the 4.3% contraction in 2023.  

Market risks have also increased with the tensions in the Middle East impacting energy prices and further propelling the price of Gold and SDPR Gold Shares ETF to recent all-time highs.

The economic developments and recent fund flows have culminated with the STI returning to 17-year highs, in addition to a surge in trading activity, spurring increased participation across various security products listed for trading on Singapore Exchange. Maintaining the local and regional economic momentum, and renewed growth and trade opportunities from supportive policies in the US, China, and Europe, is crucial for the outlook of Singapore stocks in 2025. While the STI has been recently consolidating near the 17-year highs, the Index book valuation is at present half the stretched levels it saw back when the 3,906 all-time high was formed in Oct 2007. Ahead of the 3Q24 earnings the 12M Consensus Estimate Target Price on the STI sits at 3,864. 

 

ETF AUM Up 7% in 2H24

While the two STI ETFs have delivered investors 6.4% annualised total returns since the end of 2019, it is other ETFs that have so far driven combined SGX-listed ETF AUM 7% higher in 2H24. The five ETFs that have contributed the most to this AUM growth included SPDR Gold Shares (O87, GSD), Lion-Phillip S-REIT ETF (CLR), Lion-OCBC Securities Hang Seng TECH ETF (HST), iShares MSCI Asia ex Japan Climate Action ETF (ICM) and CSOP CGS-CIMB FTSE Asia Pacific Low Carbon Index ETF (LCS). This has coincided with the Lion Global-OCBC Hang Seng Tech ETF and A-share ETFs producing record trading volumes, in addition to the SPDR Gold Shares ETF daily turnover levels this month at 6-month highs.

The 10 ETFs, with the highest absolute increases in AUM since June 30 are tabled below, along with 2H24 and YTD total returns as of Oct 9.

Top 10 ETFs by AUM Growth in 2H24SGD CodeUSD Code

AUM

9-Oct 

S$M

AUM Growth S$MAUM Growth %2H24 Total Returns %YTD Total  Returns %  
SPDR® Gold SharesGSDO871,619 209 15%8.2       25.1   
Lion-Phillip S-REIT ETFCLR 514 150 41%     16.6          3.2   
Lion-OCBC Securities Hang Seng TECH ETFHSTHSS411 94 30%     24.8       22.2   
iShares MSCI Asia ex Japan Climate Action ETFICMICU709 78 12%       6.5       16.9   
CSOP CGS-CIMB FTSE Asia Pacific Low Carbon Index ETFLCSLCU98 67 218%       1.1       14.9   
SPDR® Straits Times Index ETF ES3 1,593 62 4%     10.0       15.8   
ABF Singapore Bond Index FundA35 1,049 51 5%       3.6          2.5   
NikkoAM-StraitsTrading Asia ex Japan REIT ETFCFACOI372 44 13%     13.8          1.5   
Nikko AM Singapore STI ETFG3B 794 39 5%       9.7       15.6   
CSOP iEdge Southeast Asia+ TECH Index ETFSQQSQU142 34 32%       8.4       16.4   

Source: SGX, 9 Oct 2024

 

Significant Repricing Expands China Market Trading Ranges and Opportunities

The slate of accommodative monetary policy measures and reforms announced in China since Sep 20 have propelled the CSI 300 by 24%, the FTSE China A50 Index by 20% and Hang Seng Index by 13% through to Oct 9. The significant repricing, has provided larger trading ranges which in turn having provided wider fields for risk and return. On Oct 9, Singapore’s Structured Warrants market saw its highest trading turnover since Jan 2019. The most traded Structured Warrant and Daily Leverage Certificate both tracked the Hang Seng Index which was subject to a 6% trading range, following a 9% trading range in the preceding trading session. While still out of the money, the change in delta over the two sessions saw the HSI 18,200 Put Warrant with a Dec 30 2024 expiry (YWVW) price climb from 3.4 cents to 9.5 cents, while the Hang Seng Index declined 11% to 20,637. 

Aside from the recent heavy trading in the SGX FTSE China A50 Index Futures, open interest reached another all-time high on Oct 8, with the notional value of the 1.26 million lots at US$18.4 billion. The contract also booked its highest largest single day volume for the non-roll period. SGX CNH futures in the meantime saw much of their increased participation in late Sep which naturally coincided with the bout of volatility in the USD/CNH. 

The 20 most traded Singapore stocks that reported at least half their revenue to Greater China in the last FY have averaged 22% total returns since Sep 20, taking their average total return for the 2024 year to Oct 9, to 13%. As detailed in the table below, reactions to the 20 stocks have been mixed, with 17 gainers, one stock unchanged and two decliners. 

20 most traded Singapore stocks that reported at least half their revenue to Greater China in the last FYCodeMkt Cap S$M

TR % 

20 Sep - 9 Oct

ADT S$M YTDTR % YTDNIF S$M YTDP/B (x)5-yr avg  P/B (x)Sector
Wilmar IntlF3420,7265.717.08-2.1-62.60.801.01Consumer Non-Cyclicals
HongkongLand USDH7811,62611.310.5022.625.00.290.29Real Estate (excl. REITs)
NanofilmMZH5543.03.56-6.2-20.01.475.13Technology 
CapLand China TAU8U1,3989.32.57-4.1-49.10.660.74REITs
Geo Energy ResRE440713.72.51-14.20.60.710.91Energy/ Oil & Gas
DFIRG USDD013,90716.62.30-4.9-14.43.174.19Consumer Non-Cyclicals
YZJ Fin HldgYF81,42317.42.2633.226.90.360.33Financial Services
Yanlord LandZ251,36278.51.9021.6-15.30.220.30Real Estate (excl. REITs)
NIO Inc. USD OVNIO15,28313.21.58-36.0-10.05.495.24Consumer Cyclicals
HPH Trust USDNS8U1,76524.71.0817.1-6.50.420.47Industrials
Sasseur REITCRPU8975.90.5512.4-9.20.850.86REITs
China AviationG927967.60.4911.8-0.90.640.68Industrials
TJ DaRenTang USDT144,28216.50.3822.78.61.530.82Healthcare
ISDNI071391.60.30-15.4-1.60.681.04Technology 
Jiutian ChemicalC8R6841.70.1830.8-2.00.540.83Materials & Resources
TC AutoVI236-15.30.14-44.5-0.81.612.08Consumer Cyclicals
Hong Leong AsiaH22610-4.10.1239.81.60.640.58Consumer Cyclicals
NippecraftN32160.00.110.00.00.410.41Materials & Resources
Ying Li Intl5DM125172.20.09145.0-0.80.360.28Real Estate (excl. REITs)
China EverbrightU9E74413.00.0738.5-0.30.350.39Utilities

Note YZJ Shipbldg, CapLand Ascendas REIT, Frasers Cpt Tr, Venture and ThaiBev booked the most net institutional outflow over the 6 weeks 
TR refers to total Return, ADT refers to Average Daily Trading Turnover; NIF refers to Net Institutional Inflow, NRF refers to Net Retail Flow 
All Data as of 9 Oct 2024. Source: SGX & Refinitiv

The five most traded stocks in the table above that report all their revenue or income to China include CapitaLand China Trust, Nio Sasseur REIT and Tianjin Pharmaceutical Da Ren Tang Group Corporation. Note that Yangzijiang Shipbuilding is exclude form the table as the Group generates much international revenue, with the share price of the stock taking recent cues from the USD/CNY.  

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