MARKET PULSE: GAR, CDLHT, Tee Intl, Telcos, First REIT, Lian Beng, Swiber |
29 Jul 2013 |
KEY IDEA Golden Agri-Resources: Downgrade to HOLD Summary: Golden Agri-Resources (GAR), being one of the largest palm oil plantation owners in the world, is likely to remain vulnerable to further pullbacks in CPO prices, which had recently hit their lowest levels since Nov 2009. In view of the more muted outlook for CPO, we deem it prudent to lower our 2013 forecast to US$700/ton from US$750 previously. This results in our FY13 revenue and core earnings estimates easing by 2%. Our fair value also drops from S$0.63 to S$0.57 as we are also lowering our valuation peg from 12.5x previously to 11x. Given the limited upside and still uncertain outlook, we downgrade our call to HOLD. (Carey Wong) MORE REPORTS CDL Hospitality Trusts: 2Q13 results miss street's expectations Summary: CDL Hospitality Trusts reported a 4.4% YoY fall in net property income in 2Q13 to S$32.6m. Income available for distribution contracted 6.4% YoY to S$29.4m. 2Q13 RevPAR for the Singapore hotels fell 8.5% YoY to S$193, affected by increased competition, weaker corporate demand and the absence of the biennial Food & Hotel Asia event in Apr. The results were in line with our expectations, but missed the street's. Estimating the financial effect of the planned closure of most of the Orchard Hotel Shopping Arcade for AEI (excluding the Galleria) from late 2013, and adjusting our assumptions for the non-Singapore hotels, our FY13F DPU falls to 10.4 S cents from 10.9 S cents. Incorporating a risk-free rate of 2.5% (versus 2.2% previously) into our model, our FV drops to S$1.73 from S$1.79. We maintain a HOLD rating on CDLHT. (Sarah Ong) TEE International: FY13 earnings marred by admin expenses Summary: TEE reported 4Q13 PATMI of S$6.4m, down 45% YoY mostly due to a S$4.1m increase in administrative expenses. Due to this, FY13 PATMI of S$13.1m was judged to be somewhat below our full year expectations. The order book of the Engineering segment now stands at S$215.4m, which remains fairly stable on a YoY basis. We like management's active stance on seeking accretive acquisitions; note that TEE recently announced an MOU to invest in a waste-water treatment plant in Huzhou, China and also formed a JV for a S$8.6m 3-year contract for a water management project near Chao Phaya River, Thailand. We currently have a HOLD rating on TEE with a fair value estimate of S$0.38. However, given the attractive dividend of 2.50 S-cents ahead, which translates to a yield of 6.8% on the last closing price of S$0.37, we believe the downside may be capped from here. (Eli Lee) Telco Sector - SingTel to offer BPL cross carriage Summary: SingTel will have to offer its BPL content to rival StarHub customers after the Ministry for Communications and Information (MCI) rejected its appeal for a stay of the Media Development Authority (MDA) ruling for the cross-carriage of the closely followed football content. However, the subscription comes with a price - new subscribers will have to fork out S$59.90 (before GST) for the stand-alone package, while existing mioTV subscribers can continue with the existing pricing of S$34.90 (before GST). While we may see some migration of subscribers from mioTV to StarHub's cable TV platform, we do not expect a huge number. For now, we maintain our NEUTRAL rating on the sector. While we also maintain our HOLD rating on SingTel, we are putting our Hold rating on StarHub under review. (Carey Wong) First REIT: 2Q13 results within expectations |
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor the detailed report. |
NEWS HEADLINES - US stocks finished with slight gains on Fri, lifting the Dow industrials to a fifth weekly gain, after Wall Street dug through earnings reports that included a better-than-expected profit from Starbucks Corp. - The construction industry may be able to reduce its overall workforce by 20-30% by 2020 if it attains a similar increase in productivity, according to the chief executive of the Building and Construction Authority, John Keung. - Pockets of price falls have surfaced in the latest official stats on the state of Singapore's private property markets, including the industrial space and some residential categories. However, the property market, as a whole, still remains firm. - Singapore's manufacturing sector shrank a slightly larger than expected 5.9% in Jun compared to a year ago, due to a sharp fall in pharmaceutical output. - Advance SCT Ltd said the suspension of its arbitration proceedings with plaintiff, Qingyuan Shengli Copper Material Co Ltd, is likely to be lifted over the next few weeks. - Property investment group MYP plans to buy 80,000 sqm of retail properties in Bali in a deal valued at S$43.3m. |
petechowkw
At the end of the day, palm oil is still a very significant commodity for many foodstuffs besides other industrial uses.....it's a question of time when the CPO price recovers.
2013-08-01 13:18