From Goldman Sach Feb 9th

What surprised us On February 6, Singapore Airlines (SIA) reported 3QFY3/15 results. Preexceptional net profit came in at S$202 mn, in line with both our and Bloomberg consensus estimates of S$214 mn and S$197 mn, respectively. During the quarter, SIA&rsquo s post fuel uplift cost declined by 1.9% yoy (vs 26% yoy decline in jet fuel price) mainly due to significant fuel hedging which reached 65% jet fuel consumption at an average price of US$116/bbl, resulting in hedging losses of S$216 mn.

What to do with the stock SIA Cargo&rsquo s margins rebounded in 3Q, improving 2.9pp yoy or 6.2pp qoq to 3.1%, and bucking an average 4.2% yoy decline in the last three quarters (Exhibit 1). Cargo load factors improved 1.6pp yoy but the major contribution was from a lower fuel price environment. Meanwhile, EBIT margins for the passenger segment declined 1.2pp yoy to 3.9% driven by a lower load factor of 78.3% (-1.1pp yoy). Looking ahead, we think passenger booking for calendar year 1Q15 could recover somewhat as traffic to/from Southeast Asia recovers during Chinese New Year. However, we expect yield pressure to persist throughout calendar 2015, due to significant discounts offered by Middle Eastern carriers and LCCs on long-haul routes to fill seats. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock. Our 12-m EV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACC-based TP of S$9.60 is unchanged (target EV/GCI multiple 0.49X derived from an average FY3/16E CROCI of 9.1%). Key risks: Upside: Stronger-than-expected cargo demand. Downside: Sharp increase in oil prices.



3/14 3/15E 3/16E 3/17E

EPS (S$) 0.39 0.37 0.45 0.46

EPS growth (%) 14.1 (4.5) 21.7 1.2

EPS (diluted) (S$) 0.30 0.37 0.45 0.46

EPS (basic pre-ex) (S$) 0.40 0.37 0.45 0.46

P/E (X) 26.3 32.5 26.7 26.4

P/B (X) 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0

EV/EBITDA (X) 4.7 5.7 6.1 6.4

Dividend yield (%) 4.6 1.6 1.9 1.9

ROE (%) 2.7 3.3 3.9 3.9

CROCI (%) 10.5 9.2 9.1 9.0

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