• The STI has generated a 1.1% decline in total return in 2Q25 through to 7 May. Over the period, institutions net bought S$92 million in stocks, while retail investors net bought S$904 million in stocks. Among the 100 most traded stocks in 2025, 10 stocks bucked the declines with double digit percentage returns.
   
• These 10 stocks included CNMC Goldmine, Food Empire, Sheng Siong, Singtel, Hongkong Land, ST Engineering, Frasers Hospitality Trust, Geo Energy Resources, Jardine Matheson and Top Glove Corp Bhd. The 10 stocks averaged 14% total return, doubling their average 2025 to May 7 total return to 28%.   
   
• The next tranche of the 10 best-performing stocks over the period, with an average total return of 6%, spans eight sectors. A common thread among these stocks is that eight out of the ten generate the majority of their revenue from Singapore. This group included two REITs: Frasers Centrepoint Trust and Parkway Life REIT.
   

Since 1Q25 the STI has declined 2.7%, with dividends reducing the decline in total return to 1.1%. Generally, global equity markets have recovered much of the early April declines that were brought on by the potential economic impacts of new US trade policies. 

Since the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs to July 9 was announced, the Trump Administration has noted progress in constructive trade talks with many of its trading partners. However, the time that may be required for resolution and agreement, means the market is currently expecting the pause to be extended for a longer period. This presents global markets with two potential scenarios involving both high and low tariffs. 

FOMC voter Governor Waller anticipates that higher tariffs will lead to more significant negative growth impacts, while lower tariffs will result in less severe growth impacts. However, both scenarios are expected to bring varying degrees of structural change, with the high tariffs shifting the US economy more towards a producer-driven mode. In recent weeks, markets have clearly anticipated that trade policies will be less disruptive to growth. Yet there remains significant uncertainty regarding the immediate effects on economic growth. This has seen the Federal Reserve Chair last night relay that future changes to the target range for the federal funds rate will be determined by incoming data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks. 

For the 2Q25 through to May 7, institutions have net bought S$92 million in Singapore stocks. The Telecommunications Sector and Industrials Sector led the net institutional inflow, while the STI Banks and the Technology Sector led the net institutional outflow. At the same time retail investors net bought S$904 million in Singapore stocks over the period, with net buying concentrated to just three Sectors, the more growth dependent, Banks, Technology, Consumer Cyclicals. 

Overall the 100 most traded stocks for the year mirrored the STI decline with average decline in total return of 1.1%. As tabled below the 10 stocks that generated the strongest total returns in 2H25 to May 7 were led by CNMC Goldmine and two Consumer Non-Cyclical Stocks and Singtel. Seen to be more defensive in the current global economic outlook, all 10 stocks also booked net institutional inflow over the period.   

All Data as of May 7, 2025. Source: SGX, LSEG Workspace. Note ADT refers to Average Daily Trading Turnover; NIF refers to Net Institutional Flow, NRF refers to Net Retail Flow.

Nine of the next 10 stocks that generated the strongest total returns in 2H25 to May 7 also booked net institutional inflow over the period as tabled below. Among these 10 stocks tabled below, eight geographically segment revenue to Singapore, while DFI Retail Group and SIA Engineering segment their revenue by region. All eight stocks reported the majority of their revenue to Singapore in their previous financial year. 

All Data as of May 7, 2025. Source: SGX, LSEG Workspace. Note ADT refers to Average Daily Trading Turnover; NIF refers to Net Institutional Flow, NRF refers to Net Retail Flow.

Following the downward revisions to global growth, global investors have increased focus on economies that have either robust domestic demand or the means to support domestic demand should global downside risks, or the high tariff scenario eventuate. Heading into 2025, the IMF highlighted that Singapore's strong public finance and fiscal institutions position the country well to address its medium- and long-term challenges. If downside risks to growth materialise, the IMF noted Singapore has substantial fiscal space to deploy additional temporary and targeted support, with government-owned financial assets (net of government debt) amounting to 95% of GDP as of the end of March 2023. The IMF also noted that the banking sector, which comprises nearly 60% of total financial sector assets, continues to demonstrate ample capital buffers, sound asset quality, high profitability, and a comfortable liquidity position. These are among a multitude of policy initiatives, that also include Forward SG, to navigate both future challenges and opportunities.

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